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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The Federal Reserve has a data vacuum before December, and officials are vocal! Japanese intervention is approaching." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The trend of spot gold has been volatile this week. It was suppressed by the strength of the US dollar at the beginning of the week and fell by nearly 100 US dollars at one point on Monday. It fell below 4,000 on Tuesday and rebounded quickly driven by weak ADP employment data. It remained range-bound for the next two days, and the overall performance was still limited by the strength of the U.S. dollar. Gold prices closed at $4,065.90 per ounce on Friday, down 0.47% for the week.
International oil prices generally fluctuated and weakened. They were under pressure at the beginning of the week due to the resumption of exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk. They briefly rebounded on Tuesday due to the expected impact of sanctions. However, they plunged on Wednesday due to rumors of the United States promoting Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and continued to fall on Thursday as Uzbekistan released its stance on peace talks.
Risk assets have gone through an extremely difficult time this week, with U.S. stocks under tremendous pressure. The three major U.S. stock indexes once fell 5.5% to 8.5% from their recent peaks, and technical analysis also sent out very bearish short-term signals. The general nervousness in the market was clearly reflected in one-month implied volatility rising to a new monthly high.
Intriguingly, despite Nvidia's strong financial results and upbeat www.xmxmxm.cnments from its CEO, it has not been able to sustainably reverse the negative momentum. Investors are still questioning the product prospects and investment plans released by www.xmxmxm.cnpanies considered leaders in artificial intelligence (AI) because these plans appear to exceed their current financial and manufacturing capabilities. If market concerns about AI persist, it will be difficult for risk assets to stage a meaningful rebound.
Gold market: Spot gold has been in a volatile trend. It was suppressed by the strength of the U.S. dollar at the beginning of the week and fell by nearly 100 U.S. dollars on Monday. It fell below 4,000 on Tuesday and rebounded quickly driven by weak ADP employment data. It remained range-bound for the next two days, and the overall performance was still limited by the strength of the U.S. dollar. Gold prices closed at $4,065.90 per ounce on Friday, down 0.47% for the week.
Crude oil market: The international oil price fluctuated and weakened as a whole. It was under pressure at the beginning of the week due to the resumption of exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk. It briefly rebounded on Tuesday due to the expected impact of sanctions. However, it plunged on Wednesday due to rumors of the United States promoting Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and continued to fall on Thursday as Ukraine released its stance on peace talks.
Review of Weekly News 1. Game of Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Data The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s October meeting revealed that the decision to cut interest rates in December was deeply divided: most officials believed that interest rates need to be cut cautiously, but more than half supported gradual easing. Non-agricultural data in September was unexpectedly strong - 119,000 new jobs were created, a new high since April. However, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% and wage growth slowed, creating contradictory signals. The interest rate futures market's expectations for a rate cut in December surged from 35% to 70% after the non-farm payrolls, reflecting market confusion about the policy path. The core contradiction focuses on the balance of "dual goals": Vice Chairman Jefferson warned of downward risks in the job market, and Governor Barr emphasized that inflation may stagnate at 3%; Hammack opposed further easing, and Logan advocated "temporary standstill"; Waller supported interest rate cuts to protect the labor market, and Williams believed that the current policy is still restrictive. It is worth noting that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended the release of October CPI and employment reports. www.xmxmxm.cnplete data will be missing before the interest rate meeting on December 11, which may increase decision-making uncertainty. 2. Global Monetary Policy Trends BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted that interest rates may be raised again in December, emphasizing that a virtuous "wage-inflation" cycle is forming. The Japanese government launched a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, but the market is concerned about fiscal sustainability. The yen fell to a 10-month low and the 40-year government bond yield hit a record high. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that he would intervene in the foreign exchange market, with the 160 mark becoming a key line of defense. 3. Technology giants and market changes Nvidia’s third-quarter financial report caused a huge shock in the market: AI chip business revenue surged 66% year-on-year to US$51 billion, and Q4 guidance of US$65 billion exceeded expectations. However, US stocks suffered a market value evaporation of US$2.7 trillion on Thursday. Institutional differences intensified: Peter Thiel's funds cleared Nvidia, and SoftBank and Bridgewater significantly reduced their holdings; Duan Yongping reduced 38% of his Nvidia holdings in Q3 and switched to Berkshire; "Sister Mu" bucked the trend and increased her position by US$17.5 million. Market worries about AI valuation bubble and the Internet in the 1990sSimilar to a bubble, the VIX volatility index rose above 26, a new high since April. 4. Geopolitics and Energy Pattern Trump’s 28-point peace plan was boycotted by European allies: Ukraine was required to give up its eastern territories, reduce its military to 600,000 people, and the constitution clearly stated that it would not join NATO. Zelensky reached a consensus with the leaders of France, Germany and Britain and insisted on using the current line of contact as the starting point for negotiations. Sanctions on Russian crude oil have triggered a shock in the global trade chain, with nearly 48 million barrels of crude oil stranded at sea. Indian refiners urgently rented tankers from the Middle East, pushing up shipping rates to a five-year high. 5. A new dimension in U.S.-Saudi relations The United States and Saudi Arabia signed a strategic defense agreement. The United States agreed to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia and list it as a non-NATO ally, but Israel's "military advantage" clause may hinder the transaction. Saudi Arabia plans to invest $1 trillion in U.S. infrastructure, but low oil prices and spending on super-large projects have cast doubt on its realization. The United States has approved the export of 35,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Humain plans to purchase 600,000 AI chips and cooperate with Musk to build a data center. 6. Focus on American politics and society Trump’s approval rating fell to 38%, a new low during his tenure, and the release of Epstein case documents caused controversy. The bill he signed requires the Ministry of Justice to disclose nearly 50,000 pages of case materials within 30 days, but the media questioned the value of the substantial www.xmxmxm.cnrmation. Trump made tough statements to three Latin American countries: threatening military action against Venezuela, considering deploying troops to Mexico to www.xmxmxm.cnbat drugs, and cracking down on Colombian coca base production facilities, triggering a sharp depreciation of the Mexican peso. 7. The forefront of the AI technology revolution Google launched the Gemini3 series of AI models and integrated them into search, App and developer platforms. Gemini3Pro has native multi-modal capabilities and can process text, images, and audio. It is superior to the previous generation in terms of software development and document analysis. The NanoBananaPro imaging model www.xmxmxm.cnbines reasoning capabilities to support the generation of professional-level charts and accurate presentation of multilingual text. Google emphasizes that its reasoning capabilities rank first in the LMArena rankings, and its "deep thinking" mode enhances professional scene applications. This cycle, the global market is experiencing a triple resonance of policy differentiation, geopolitical conflicts, and technological changes: suspense over the policy path of the Federal Reserve, expectations of Japan’s interest rate hikes, deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, AI valuation disputes, and restructuring of the energy trade chain. Market volatility has increased significantly. Investors need to pay close attention to key data releases, central bank policy signals, and geopolitical developments. The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: There is a vacuum of data from the Federal Reserve before December, and officials are intensively speaking out! Japanese intervention is approaching". It is carefully www.xmxmxm.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support! After doing something, there will always be experiences and lessons learned. 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