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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Decision Analysis]: Will U.S. inflation continue to surge upward? The U.S. dollar is stable above the 100 mark." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 24, at the beginning of this week, the market turned to positive risks, and investors reassessed the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates in December. During the European trading day, German business confidence data will be closely watched by market participants. The U.S. economic calendar is set to release mid-range data on Monday.
Dovish www.xmxmxm.cnments from Federal Reserve policymakers fueled expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) interest rate cut in December on Friday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now expects a rate cut probability of about 70%, www.xmxmxm.cnpared with less than 50% a few days ago. Fed Governor Stephen Millan, who has favored a 50-basis-point cut in the previous two policy meetings, said he would vote for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December if his vote determines whether the Fed cuts rates. Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams hinted that he could vote for a rate cut at the next meeting, saying: "I think monetary policy is moderately constrained. Therefore, I still think there is room for further adjustments in the short term."
The U.S. Dollar (USD) Index erased intraday gains on Friday night and ended almost unchanged. Earlier on Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index was trading within a tight range above 100.0. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures were last trading higher between 0.2% and 0.7% after major Wall Street indexes posted decisive gains ahead of the weekend.
EUR/USD was steady at the start of European trading after falling nearly 1% in the previous week.
GBP/USD fell about 0.6% last week and then entered a consolidation phase near 1.3100 in the early hours of Monday morning. On Wednesday, Chancellor Rachel ReeveSri Lanka will announce its autumn budget, which may affect the Bank of England's (BoE) policy outlook and the valuation of the pound.
The dollar fell against the yen on Friday, ending a five-day winning streak. The pair held steady during European morning trade and traded above 156.50.
Gold maintained its quotation tone in early European trading on Monday, but lacked follow-up performance. It is currently trading above US$4,050.
Euro: EUR/USD was biased towards 1.1467 during the session, still slightly downward. A strong breakout there would resume the overall decline from the 1.1917 high. The next target is 1.1390, followed by the 38.2% retracement from 1.0176 to 1.1917, 1.1252. On the upside, minor resistance above 1.1551 will turn towards neutral intraday. But as long as the 1.1655 resistance level remains, the risk will continue to decline to prevent a rebound.
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