The U.S. dollar index shows an inverted V trend, and the British fiscal buffer space exceeds market expectations

On November 27, in early Asian trading on Thursday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.50. On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index showed an inverted V trend, once approaching the 100 mark during the session, but then turned sharply downward, and finally closed down 0.237% at 99.57; U.S. bond yields were mixed, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield closing at 3.997%, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate, closed at 3.483%. As the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at next month's meeting further increased, spot gold rose, hitting another new high in more than a week, and finally closed up 0.8% at US$4,163.76 per ounce; spot silver rose even more significantly, and finally closed up 3.63% at US$53.36 per ounce. International crude oil followed risk assets higher and rebounded slightly from the one-month low hit on the previous trading day. The market showed the typical characteristics of thin trading volume before the Thanksgiving holiday. WTI crude oil fluctuated higher and finally closed up 0.67% at US$58.48/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.71% at US$62.41/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.50. Affected by multiple factors on Wednesday, it showed a trend of downward pressure and multiple resistances. At the same time, the sudden congestion of short positions in the market hid the risk of a rapid rebound. Technically, if the U.S. Dollar Index falls below the 99.50 level, it will move towards the nearest support, which is located in the 98.85 to 99.00 range.

EuropeYuan: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1603. In the euro zone, European Central Bank (ECB) officials crossed the news agency. Vice President Luis de Guindos said the current level of tax rates was correct. Boris Vujicic said: "If there is another rate cut, you have to see the path of inflation declining." Technically, EUR/USD is trying to stabilize above resistance at 1.1585–1.1600. If this attempt is successful, EURUSD will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1715 to 1.1730 range.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3247. U.S. markets will be functionally shut down for the remainder of the week, with U.S. market participants having Thursday and Friday off for the Thanksgiving holiday. Economic data on the UK side has been relatively quiet; however, government budget tensions remain as the UK Parliament grapples with how to raise money without running into runaway deficits. Technically, the nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is between 1.3250 and 1.3265. If GBP/USD can stabilize above 1.3265, it will head towards the next resistance level of 1.3360–1.3375.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Thursday, gold hovered around 4158.80. It rose more than 0.80%, driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields and a weaker dollar. Despite strong U.S. economic data, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates remains high. Gold rose on Wednesday after data from the U.S. Labor Department showed the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell from last week to the lowest level since mid-April. The U.S. Census Bureau revealed that durable goods orders in September were higher than expected, but were down from August's data.

Technical aspect: From a technical perspective, the daily chart of spot gold shows a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern and is currently trying to break through the upper track resistance. If the breakthrough is successful, the bull market trend will be further consolidated and the upward space is expected to open up. The subsequent targets are US$4,200 and US$4,250. In terms of support, the initial support is around $4,150; the stronger support range is $4,050-4,070, which coincides with the lower rail of the triangle and the 21-day simple moving average (SMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 60, indicating that bulls have strong momentum and have not yet entered the overbought zone, so there is still room for further upside.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Thursday in Asia, crude oil was trading around 58.38. Oil prices continued their decline on Tuesday as Ukraine signaled that it might accept the peace agreement framework proposed by the United States, sparking concerns about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent return of Russian oil supplies to the market. The subsequent progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement will become a core variable in the crude oil market, and the timing of finalizing and signing the details of the agreement may trigger violent fluctuations in oil prices. At the same time, the subsequent impact of the U.S. government shutdown, the release of more economic data, and changes in the labor market will continue to affect demand expectations. On the supply side, OPEC+'s adjustment to its production reduction policy, changes in output from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and the specific pace of Russian oil's return to the market are all clues that need to be tracked.

Technical: WTI crude oil futures have risen in recent trading, benefiting from the solid performance of the key support level of $57.35, which is the target set in our previous analysis. This support level provided upward momentum for prices, pushing WTI crude oil futures to record intraday gains. At the same time, positive signals emerged on the Relative Strength Index and previous overbought conditions were released, allowing prices to regain some upward momentum.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on November 27, 2025

①10:00 The State Council www.xmxmxm.cnrmation Office held a regular briefing on the policies of the State Council

②15:00 Germany December Gfk Consumer Confidence Index

③15:00 Ministry of www.xmxmxm.cnmerce holds a regular press conference

④18:00 Euro Zone Industrial Sentiment Index in November

⑤18:00 Euro Yuan District November Economic Sentiment Index

⑥20:30 The European Central Bank releases the minutes of the October monetary policy meeting

⑦21:30 Canada's third quarter current account

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