Russia has received the latest version of its peace plan, boosted by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve

On November 27, in early trading in Asia, spot gold was trading around US$4,150.57 per ounce. Gold prices continued their gains on Wednesday, climbing to a more than one-week high, affected by market sentiment. U.S. crude oil traded around $58.50 a barrel, boosted by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. Oil prices recovered slightly from a one-month low on Wednesday as investors weighed the prospect of oversupply and the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Global currency markets showed divergent trends on Wednesday, with the Japanese yen falling after a brief boost from expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, while the pound strengthened significantly after the UK budget was announced, and the U.S. dollar came under pressure as the market maintained expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% against the US dollar on Wednesday to 156.44 yen, rising to a high of 155.66 yen during the session. Although sources revealed that the Bank of Japan was preparing to raise interest rates as early as next month, the initial boost quickly faded. Strategists pointed out: "Unless the Bank of Japan www.xmxmxm.cnmits to continuing to raise interest rates before 2026 to control inflation, it is difficult for a single interest rate hike to significantly change the trend of the yen."

Market concerns about Japan's worsening fiscal situation continue to suppress the yen, but traders are still wary of Tokyo's possible intervention in the currency market. The head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank said that there is a possibility of intervention during Thanksgiving, but the market's fear of intervention itself may inhibit the rise of the dollar against the yen.

The British pound was the highlight of the day on Wednesday, rising 0.5% against the US dollar to $1.3228. The budget announced by British Finance Minister Reeves provides a fiscal buffer that exceeds expectations. The Office for Budget Responsibility said that the buffer funds to achieve fiscal targets will more than double than before, easing investors' risk on British borrowing.worries.

The New Zealand dollar was particularly strong, jumping 1.3% to $0.5695, hitting a three-week high. Although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 2.25% as expected, it signaled that the easing cycle may be over, and traders immediately lowered their expectations for further interest rate cuts.

The U.S. dollar index continues to weaken, and the market’s expected probability of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December remains at 85%. Investors are betting that White House economic adviser Hassett, who is likely to take over as Fed chairman, will adopt more dovish policies, adding to the dollar's weakening outlook. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent previously said that Trump is likely to announce the new chairman before Christmas.

In other currencies, the euro rose 0.2% to US$1.1590 against the US dollar, and the Australian dollar rose 0.7% to US$0.6517, as Australian inflation accelerated for the fourth consecutive month, reducing the possibility of further easing. The market will continue to pay attention to policy signals from central banks and geopolitical developments to find new trading directions.

Asian Markets

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Director Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday: "If economic activity and prices develop in line with the bank's outlook, the bank will gradually adjust the degree of monetary tolerance."

European Markets

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said overnight that although overall inflation has been close to target levels for most of the year, energy deflation still favors the situation. Non-energy inflation remains "well above 2%" and Lane stressed the need for further slowing to ensure inflation remains stable at target levels. Still, he added: "We're confident this will happen because everything we're looking at suggests wage dynamics will slow further." Ryan also echoed concerns about U.S. tariffs and European export risks. He believes the hit may be smaller than expected as artificial intelligence-driven expansion and high U.S. government spending support U.S. demand. In this case, there is still room for www.xmxmxm.cnpanies to pass on tariff-related costs to U.S. importers and consumers. Although the United States is an important partner, Ryan emphasized that it is "not the main driver of the European economy."

However, he warned that tariffs are reshaping global trade flows in meaningful ways, especially in Asia. China exports more to Southeast Asia, and Southeast Asia exports more to the United States. China is also expanding its presence in Europe and other markets. Ryan called it a "very large-scale reorganization" of the global system that intensified www.xmxmxm.cnpetitive pressures on European www.xmxmxm.cnpanies at home.

U.S. market

In the week ended November 22, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States fell by 6,000 to 216,000, lower than the 226,000 expected. The four-week moving average of initial applications fell by 1,000 to 224,000.

Continuing applicants increased by 7,000,000 to 1,960,000 in the week ended November 15. The four-week moving average of continuing applications rose 750 points to 1,956,000.

BeautyDomestic durable goods orders increased by 0.5% month-on-month to US$313.7 billion in September, in line with expectations. Overall growth was mainly driven by transportation equipment, which rose 0.4% month-on-month to $110.7 billion, rising for the second consecutive month.

Defense orders also rose slightly by 0.1% to US$290 million, reflecting that momentum in various manufacturing categories remained moderate.

A stronger signal came from core orders, except for the transportation industry, which rose 0.6% month-on-month, much higher than the market consensus of 0.2%, reaching $202.9 billion. The data showed business investment remained resilient, providing a mild counterweight to recent signs of cooling elsewhere in the economy.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are boosted, and Russia has received the latest version of the peace plan". It was carefully www.xmxmxm.cnpiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

After doing something, there will always be experiences and lessons learned. In order to facilitate future work, the experience and lessons of past work must be analyzed, researched, summarized, concentrated, and understood at a theoretical level.