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Putin says there is "no final version" of the peace agreement, is the ECB's interest rate cut cycle over?

Post time: 2025-11-28 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Putin said that the peace agreement "has no final version yet", has the European Central Bank interest rate cut cycle ended?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On November 28, in early Asian trading on Friday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.58. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index rose first and then fell as a whole, hitting an intraday high and then erasing all gains, and finally closed down 0.059% at 99.53. Due to light trading in the market during the Thanksgiving holiday, spot gold fluctuated sideways and finally closed down 0.14% at US$4,157.99 per ounce, still hovering near the high of nearly two weeks; spot silver rose for four consecutive days and finally closed up 0.1% at US$53.4 per ounce. International crude oil rose for the second consecutive trading day as traders waited to see the direction of Russia-Ukraine negotiations and looked ahead to this weekend's OPEC+ meeting. WTI crude oil stood above the 59 mark and finally closed up 0.96% at US$59.03/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.77% at US$62.89/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.58. Increased bets on a U.S. interest rate cut in December weighed on the dollar. U.S. initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since April. Technically, if the U.S. Dollar Index falls below 99.50, it will move towards the 98.85 to 99.00 support level.

Putin says there is no final version of the peace agreement, is the ECBs interest rate cut cycle over?(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1595. The euro was flat against the dollar on Thursday, with trading liquidity tight as U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving. Still, expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut borrowing costs kept the dollar under pressure, and the euro was expected to end the week with gains.Technically, if EUR/USD falls below 1.1600, it will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1715 to 1.1730 range.

Putin says there is no final version of the peace agreement, is the ECBs interest rate cut cycle over?(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3234. GBP/USD also rose as the pound strengthened as traders reassessed Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' latest budget and her renewed www.xmxmxm.cnmitment to fiscal discipline. Technically, a successful test of the 1.3245–1.3260 resistance would open the way to a test of the next resistance at 1.3360–1.3375. The RSI is in mid-range, and there is still plenty of room to gain additional upside momentum if the right catalysts emerge.

Putin says there is no final version of the peace agreement, is the ECBs interest rate cut cycle over?(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Friday, gold hovered around 4176.80. On Thursday, gold bullion prices appeared to be consolidating amid a lack of news. However, the recent reopening of the U.S. government has opened the door to economic data, which so far shows that the U.S. job market remains solid and inflation has stalled and may be headed downward again. This increases the likelihood of further easing by the Fed, which is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Putin says there is no final version of the peace agreement, is the ECBs interest rate cut cycle over?(图4)

Technical: Gold is trading around $4,160, with traders unable to challenge the $4,200 mark, although the relative strength index (RSI) is bullish, showing buyers are in control. If it breaks through the $4,200 mark, it will expose key resistance levels such as $4,250, $4,300 and the all-time high of $4,381. Conversely, bulls failed to hold $4,150 and $4,100, opening the way for a test of the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,074 and $4,000 levels.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Friday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 58.85. Investors are paying close attention to the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and the upcoming OPEC+ production policy meeting. In addition, rising market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December have also provided support to oil prices. Cutting interest rates typically helps stimulate economic growth, which boosts oil demand. Analysts pointed out that under the www.xmxmxm.cnbined effect of multiple factors, oil prices have maintained a relatively stable trend amid light trading.

Putin says there is no final version of the peace agreement, is the ECBs interest rate cut cycle over?(图5)

Technical: U.S. crude oil (WTI) continues to be under pressure in the near futureBelow the key moving averages, prices are trading within a narrow range around $58, close to one-month lows, and the overall technical pattern is bearish. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages maintain a downward arrangement, and the price is below them, confirming a weak mid-term pattern. The MACD indicator is below the zero axis. Although the green column has converged slightly, there is no obvious bottom divergence, indicating that although the downward momentum has slowed down, bears still dominate. The RSI is hovering around 40, not entering oversold territory, indicating cautious market sentiment but not yet panic selling. If WTI effectively falls below the 57.50 support range, it may accelerate its decline to the key psychological level of $55; conversely, it needs to stabilize at $60 and break through the 10-day moving average to alleviate short-term downward pressure. The current technical and fundamental resonance is weak, and the rebound lacks volume and energy coordination. In the short term, the weak consolidation in the range may continue.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on November 28, 2025

15:45 French November CPI monthly initial value

15:45 French third quarter GD P annual rate final value

16:00 Swiss KOF Economic Leading Indicator in November

16:55 Germany’s number of unemployed people after seasonally adjustment in November (ten thousand people)

16:55 Germany China's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in November

21:00 Initial value of Germany's November CPI monthly rate

21:30 Canada's September GDP monthly rate

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Putin said there is "no final version" of the peace agreement, and the ECB interest rate cut cycle is over?" It is carefully www.xmxmxm.cnpiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor, I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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