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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: A collection of good and bad news affecting the foreign exchange market". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 26, 2025, the foreign exchange market ushered in a period of intensive long and short news. Factors such as the divergence of Fed policy expectations, the mixed economic data of the Eurozone, and the movements of emerging market central banks jointly stirred up the market. On that day, the major currency pairs showed a trend of "stronger fluctuations in the US dollar and intensified differentiation between the United States and the United States." Traders need to closely follow the core news and data signals to accurately grasp the long-short logic switch. The following will sort out the key news and analyze the actual impact on each currency pair from two dimensions: good for the U.S. dollar and bad for the U.S. dollar (good for the non-U.S.).
The Federal Reserve’s hawkish remarks continue to be released, becoming the core driving force supporting the U.S. dollar. On the evening of November 25, Fed Governor Waller emphasized in a closed-door economic seminar that "the current downward trend in inflation has not yet stabilized. The core PCE inflation in October rose by 0.3% month-on-month, indicating that price stickiness still exists. If the November inflation data does not meet expectations, the possibility of restarting interest rate hikes in December cannot be ruled out." This statement was more hawkish than the previous "pause of interest rate hikes" tone, pushing the probability of an interest rate hike in December shown by the CME Fed Watch Tool from 5% to 12%, and the U.S. Dollar Index jumped 0.2% to 105.52 in the short term. On the same day, the regional manufacturing index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recorded -3.2, a significant improvement from the previous value of -5.1, indicating that the pressure of recession in the U.S. manufacturing industry has been marginally eased, providing economic fundamental support for the US dollar.
The U.S. real estate market data was unexpectedly positive, further strengthening the resilience of the U.S. dollar. The total number of new home sales in the United States in October was announced on November 25 at an annualized rate of 745,000, far exceeding market expectations of 680,000, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, a new high since May 2023. Surge in new home sales reflects U.S.The demand for domestic real estate market is resilient, with mortgage interest rates falling slightly to 7.2%. Market expectations for a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy are rising. The demand for capital hedging has weakened, but the allocation demand for the U.S. dollar has increased. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc in the short term.
Euro zone service industry data exceeded expectations, providing support for the euro and suppressing the US dollar. The preliminary value of the Eurozone's November service PMI, announced on November 25, was 53.2, which was a further rebound from the previous value of 52.7. It has been in the expansion range for four consecutive months. The German service PMI rose to 53.0, and the French service PMI remained at 53.6. The resilience of consumer and service industry demand eased market concerns about the euro zone economic recession. After the data was released, the euro rose from 1.1520 to 1.1550 against the U.S. dollar, and the service PMI difference between the euro zone and the United States widened to 2.4, the highest since March 2025. Changes in interest rate spread expectations drove an increase in euro buying, and the U.S. dollar index fell under pressure.
The Bank of Japan’s policy shift is expected to heat up, and the strength of the yen will drag down the dollar. Japan's core CPI rose by 3.0% year-on-year in October, higher than the Bank of Japan's 2% target for 12 consecutive months. In November, the Tokyo area's core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, indicating that inflation was more sticky than expected. In early trading on November 26, Bank of Japan official Kazuo Ueda stated that "we will pay close attention to the rising effect of the depreciation of the yen on inflation. If inflation continues to be higher than the target, we will consider adjusting the yield curve control policy." The market responded to the Bank of Japan's 202 Expectations for the withdrawal of easing in the spring of 2020 have increased. The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 155.80 against the US dollar in the short term, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen fell from 156.30 to 155.70. This dragged the US dollar index back to around 105.40.
British economic data improved marginally, and the pound rebounded to suppress the dollar. The British GfK consumer confidence index recorded -24 in November, a significant rebound from the previous value of -27, a new high since June 2023; retail sales in October increased by 0.3% month-on-month, ending two consecutive months of decline. The improvement in economic data alleviated the market's concerns about premature interest rate cuts by the Bank of England. GBP/USD rose from 1.3100 to 1.3140. The strength of GBP further diverted U.S. dollar buying, and the U.S. dollar index showed a volatile fall pattern during the European trading session.
EUR/USD: In the short term, it is supported by the Eurozone service industry data, but the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and the long-short game is fierce. The core fluctuation range is 1.1520-1.1580. Operations can rely on 1.1520 to buy low, 1.1580 to sell high, and the stop loss is set 30 points outside the range.
USD/JPY: Bank of Japan policy expectations dominate the trend, with 156.00 becoming the key support level. If it falls below this position, you can follow the trend and chase short, targeting 155.30; if the support is maintained, focus on the 156.80 resistance level, and the stop loss is set at 15Above 7.00.
GBP/USD: Improved British economic data provides support, but expectations for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England still exist. 1.3150 is the upper edge of the previous shock platform. After breaking through, you can add to long positions, otherwise trade in the range of 1.3100-1.3150.
The news to focus on today includes: Eurozone industrial output data for October at 17:00, US October core PCE price index at 21:30, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s speech at 23:00. If the core PCE data is higher than expected, the US dollar is expected to strengthen again; if it is lower than expected, non-US currencies may have an opportunity to rebound. Traders need to maintain flexible positions and closely track changes in data and policy signals.
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