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The dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?

Post time: 2025-11-26 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The US dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

On November 26, in early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.84. On Tuesday, as lower-than-expected retail sales data strengthened market expectations for a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar index fell back from its highs, falling below the 100 mark, and finally closed down 0.389% at 99.81; U.S. bond yields continued their decline, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield falling below 4% for the first time since late October, and the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy interest rate, closed at 3.463%. As the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve was offset by the easing of geopolitical risks, spot gold fluctuated in a range, setting a new high since November 14, and finally closed down 0.1% at US$4,130.84 per ounce; spot silver finally closed up 0.24% at US$51.48 per ounce. International crude oil returned to decline as signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks boosted expectations that Russian oil supplies will remain stable. WTI crude oil once fell 3%, approaching the US$57 mark, hitting a new low in more than a month. It finally closed down 1.36%, at US$58.09/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.31%, at US$61.97/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.84. The U.S. dollar is currently under pressure, with economic data failing to provide effective support to bulls. Weak employment data, sluggish consumer confidence and tepid inflation all point to the possibility of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Before the market narrative changes or buyers regain 100.395, the USD Index’s highestThe minor resistance path remains technical to the downside, with the Yuan Index trying to stabilize below the 50-day moving average at 99.83. If this attempt is successful, the USD Index will move towards the next level of resistance, which is located in the 98.85 to 99.00 range.

The dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?(图1)

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1566. With overvalued U.S. technology stocks still facing significant downside risks, the market is cautious about market risk appetite this week. Therefore, even if it is not bullish on the US dollar in the long term, the market maintains a neutral to bearish view on the outlook for the EURUSD. Technically, the nearest resistance lies in the 1.1585 to 1.1600 range. If EUR/USD can stabilize above 1.1600, it will head towards the next resistance level of 1.1715–1.1730.

The dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3163. GBP/USD gained on a weaker U.S. dollar amid weaker producer prices, slowing retail sales and a plunge in U.S. consumer confidence. Technically, if GBP/USD holds above 1.3160, it will head towards the next resistance level of 1.3250–1.3265.

The dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Wednesday, gold hovered around 4143.35. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December continue to rise, with the probability now rising to 85%. As the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday approaches, overall market trading is restricted. Of course, weaker-than-expected retail sales data, stubborn inflationary pressures, and dovish www.xmxmxm.cnments from Federal Reserve officials are quietly driving potential upside for gold prices. This trading day needs to pay attention to news related to the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. In addition, investors should pay close attention to changes in market expectations for the December Federal Reserve meeting and the dynamics of potential chairman candidates. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of the 4100-4160 area.

The dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?(图4)

Technical: Although gold prices are consolidating below $4,200 per ounce and traders are still waiting for new catalysts, gold prices are still trending upward. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while flat, remains above the 50 threshold, indicating that buyers are in control. The first key resistance level for gold is $4,200 per ounce, followed by the November 13 high of $4,245 per ounce. If it breaks through the latter, it may test 4300 US dollars / ounce, and even challenged the historical high of 4381 US dollars / ounce. On the other hand, if it falls below US$4,100 per ounce, it may challenge the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) of US$4,045 per ounce, and then it may further drop to US$4,000 per ounce.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Wednesday in the Asian market, crude oil was trading around 57.98. Oil prices continued their decline on Tuesday as Ukraine signaled that it might accept the peace agreement framework proposed by the United States, sparking concerns about the end of the Russia-Ukraine war and the subsequent return of Russian oil supplies to the market. The subsequent progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement will become a core variable in the crude oil market, and the timing of finalizing and signing the details of the agreement may trigger violent fluctuations in oil prices. At the same time, the subsequent impact of the U.S. government shutdown, the release of more economic data, and changes in the labor market will continue to affect demand expectations. On the supply side, OPEC+'s adjustment to its production reduction policy, changes in output from non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and the specific pace of Russian oil's return to the market are all clues that need to be tracked.

The dollar fell below the 100 mark, has Powell shown his trump card?(图5)

Technical aspect: The daily chart of WTI crude oil clearly shows a clear downward trend. The contract has continued to fall since last week, and the decline further expanded by more than 2.5% on Tuesday. The price ran along the negative trend line and stabilized below the EMA50 moving average, consolidating the stability of the short-term downward trend, and bearish sentiment currently dominates. The most critical gaming point currently is concentrated in the $57 area. This range has formed important support since March 2021 and has become the last line of defense for bulls in the short term. Historical trading data shows that $57.35 is the core support level of this range, which has been tested many times before. Once it falls below effectively, the negative pressure will continue.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on November 26, 2025

21:30 Number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to November 22

21:30 Monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in September

22:45 United States Chicago PMI in November

23:00 Annualized total number of new home sales in September in the United States

23:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to November 21

23:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to November 21

23:30 EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory from the United States to the week of November 21

01:00 EIA Natural Gas Inventory from the United States to the week of November 21 the next day

Oil drillers from the United States to the week of November 28 from 02:00 the next day Total number of wells

The Federal Reserve released the Beige Book of Economic Conditions at 03:00 the next day

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