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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The U.S. dollar remains weak, the Fed's interest rate cut bets suddenly turn, and the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement is expected to hit oil prices." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On November 26, the New Zealand and Australian dollars strengthened on Wednesday as the market reacted to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy decision and Australian inflation data. In the second half of the day, September durable goods orders and weekly initial jobless claims data will appear on the U.S. economic calendar before markets take a break for the Thanksgiving holiday.
New Zealand's central bank announced in early Asian trading that it would cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.25%, as widely expected. Updated economic forecasts put the RBNZ's official cash rate at 2.25% in March 2026 and 2.28% in December 2026. At a post-meeting press conference, RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby said they believed risks were balanced and reiterated its core forecast based on policy rates remaining unchanged until 2026. The New Zealand dollar (NZD/USD) has been building bullish momentum and was last trading just below 0.5700, up more than 1% on the day.
Australian data showed annual inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 3.8% in October from 3.5% in September. The reading was higher than market expectations of 3.6%. AUD/USD benefited from the red-hot inflation data and ended the day up more than 0.5% at 0.6505.
In early European trading on Wednesday, the U.S. dollar (USD) was still under moderate bearish pressure, with the U.S. dollar index now down to 99.50 after falling about 0.4% on Tuesday. Automated Data Processing (ADP)'s weekly report on Tuesday showed that as of 11In the four weeks to March 8, private employers cut an average of 13,500 jobs per week, highlighting the deteriorating conditions in the labor market. Meanwhile, major Wall Street indexes posted strong gains on Tuesday, driven by rising expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Earlier on Wednesday, U.S. stock index futures were up 0.3% to 0.5%.
GBP/USD took advantage of renewed U.S. dollar weakness, rising about 0.5% on Tuesday. The pair continued to edge higher towards 1.3200 during European morning trading on Wednesday. Later in the day, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will unveil the autumn budget.
EUR/USD continued to climb on Tuesday's gains, rising to 1.1600 on Wednesday and trading at a new weekly high.
USD/JPY found support after falling on Tuesday and held on to modest gains above 156.00 in early European trading.
Gold was flat in the European market on Wednesday, with the current price around $4,150.
Euro: The intraday bias of EUR/USD remains neutral, and more consolidation is possible. Further declines are expected, with resistance at 1.1655 remaining. On the downside, a break below 1.1490 and 1.1467 will resume the overall decline from the 1.1917 high. The next target is 1.1390, followed by the 38.2% retracement from 1.0176 to 1.1917, 1.1252.
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