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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: German inflation unexpectedly accelerated, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 28". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Due to cooling problems at the CyrusOne data center, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) suspended trading, causing stock index futures to continue to be suspended on Friday. However, ETFs tracking major stock indexes were higher in premarket trading: SPY +0.26%, QQQ +0.42%, DIA +0.11%. Germany's DAX index fell 0.03%, Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.11%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.10%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell 0.02%.
⑴ Germany’s preliminary HICP rose by 2.6% year-on-year in November, exceeding market expectations of 2.4%, and significantly accelerating from the previous value of 2.3%. ⑵ HICP fell by 0.5% month-on-month that month, which was smaller than the expected 0.6% decline, indicating that deflationary pressure was not as strong as expected. ⑶The national CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 2.4%, but only decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was better than the expected decrease of 0.3%. ⑷Inflation data exceeded expectations across the board, especially the accelerated upward trend of the HICP indicator, which may change the market's expectations for the pace of the European Central Bank's monetary policy. ⑸ As the largest economy in the Eurozone, the rebound in inflation in Germany will make it more difficult for the European Central Bank to make interest rate cut decisions, reducing the possibility of a policy shift in the short term. ⑹ The bond market needs to re-price the interest rate path of the European Central Bank. German government bond yields are facing upward pressure, which may drive the yields of other euro zone member states to move in synchrony.High ⑺Investors should pay close attention to the subsequent release of overall inflation data in the euro zone to confirm whether the rebound in German inflation is an isolated phenomenon or a regional trend.
⑴ As of the week of November 26, global stock funds suffered a www.xmxmxm.cn outflow of US$4.48 billion, ending the nine-consecutive-week www.xmxmxm.cn inflow trend. ⑵Investors’ concerns about overvaluation have overridden optimistic expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In particular, valuation pressure on the technology sector has become a major concern. ⑶Regional distribution showed obvious differentiation. U.S. and European stock funds had outflows of US$4.56 billion and US$1.21 billion respectively, while Asian funds received a www.xmxmxm.cn inflow of US$170 million. ⑷ Global bond fund inflows fell to US$6.77 billion, the lowest level in 22 weeks, of which Euro bond funds suffered a www.xmxmxm.cn outflow of US$3.58 billion. ⑸ Safe-haven assets continued to be popular, with money market funds receiving a www.xmxmxm.cn inflow of US$2.54 billion, and gold and precious metal funds attracting US$1.66 billion for the seventh consecutive week. ⑹ Emerging market equity funds bucked the trend and attracted US$3.34 billion, the largest weekly inflow since July 9. ⑺ The chief investment officer of DWS Group pointed out that although artificial intelligence is still a market driver, the selective assessment of highly valued AI leading www.xmxmxm.cnpanies will become more stringent.
⑴ It is reported that negotiations on the defense fund plan for the UK to join the EU totaling up to 150 billion euros have failed. ⑵The core crux of the breakdown in negotiations lies in the issue of fund sharing. The European www.xmxmxm.cnmission initially required the UK to pay 6.75 billion euros as a condition for joining the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, but the UK considered this amount unacceptable. In recent negotiations, the UK's assessment plan of approximately 82 million euros and some administrative costs were also rejected by Brussels. ⑶ Due to major differences between the two parties on the amount of assessments and the deadline at the end of this month is approaching, the negotiations failed to reach any solution. The move means the UK will not be able to participate in the fund and thus be unable to apply for relevant funding for its military equipment purchases.
⑴ The U.S. two-year Treasury bond yield is at 3.495%, with a positive interest rate differential of 146.2 basis points www.xmxmxm.cnpared to German bonds of the same period, showing obvious monetary policy differentiation. ⑵ The yield on the U.S. ten-year Treasury bond reached 3.997%, and the spread over German bonds of the same period widened to 131.0 basis points, reflecting the significant difference in the long-term growth expectations of the two countries. ⑶The yield on Japanese two-year government bonds is only 0.976%, and the interest rate difference with that of the United States is as high as 251.9 basis points, making it the most extreme contrast in the global yield curve. ⑷ Australian bond yields are overall higher than those of major developed countries, with its two-year yield reaching 3.815% and the ten-year yield reaching 4.529%, indicating that the market has stronger inflation expectations. ⑸ There is an obvious stratification within Europe. Germany’s ten-year yield is 2.687%, which has become the benchmark, while Italy’s yield over the same period has reached 3.408%.The spread of 72 basis points highlights the credit risk premium. ⑹ The British bond yield curve is extremely steep, with the interest rate difference between the two-year term of 3.741% and the ten-year term of 4.446% far exceeding that of the United States, suggesting that the market is more worried about long-term inflation in the United Kingdom. ⑺ The current global government bond market shows an obvious multi-polar pattern, and the yield levels of various countries reflect the different monetary policy paths and economic growth prospects, providing new arbitrage space for cross-border capital flows.
⑴ In the week before Thanksgiving, only United Leasing was left alone in the primary market for high-yield bonds in the United States. On November 24, it issued US$1.5 billion in 8-year non-puttable bonds with a coupon rate of 5.375%, which fell below the 5.5% guidance. ⑵ Institutional data shows that industry interest rate spreads have fallen from a high of 320 basis points on November 18 to 310 basis points on the 25th, and secondary market sentiment has recovered. ⑶ Congress resumed and data resumed. The head of the agency's fixed income said that weak indicators pointed to an economic slowdown, and the door to an interest rate cut at the December policy meeting was still open. ⑷Buyers pointed out that the minimum rating proportion of the high-yield index has dropped from 25% ten years ago to 10%, and the improvement in quality provides confidence for historically low interest rate spreads. ⑸ A pharmaceutical www.xmxmxm.cnpany launched an exchange offer at the same time, intending to exchange US$1.6 billion in bonds due in 2028 for new bonds in 2032, with a coupon of 10%, using its ophthalmology equity as an asset. The agency believes that the asset package has been strengthened and the risk of default is controllable, and the rating party views it as moderately positive, as the longer maturity offsets the increase in interest.
⑴ Rabobank Jane Foley pointed out that the CME Group’s system outage on Friday caused major disruption to the foreign exchange market, but due to light trading after Thanksgiving, the impact is still controllable. ⑵ Futures and options trading was suspended for several hours, which directly led to a significant decrease in liquidity in the foreign exchange market. ⑶The EBS foreign exchange wholesale electronic trading platform of CME Group is also affected, further exacerbating the tight liquidity situation in the foreign exchange market. ⑷Foley believes that if the system outage can be repaired by early next week, although the impact will be inconvenient, the overall impact will still be relatively controllable. ⑸ This incident exposed the technical vulnerability of large exchanges during holidays. Even when trading volumes are low, system failures can still have a chain reaction on the global market.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated in a briefing on November 28, local time, that the United States has forwarded to Russia the details of the plan agreed with Ukraine in the Geneva negotiations on the 23rd, and these details will be discussed next week. Russia will promptly notify the U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East Witkov of the time of his visit to Moscow. Peskov said that Russia does not want to discuss the solution to the Ukrainian issue through public propaganda and propaganda.
⑴ Data over the past ten years show that the average absolute volatility of the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield on the Friday after Thanksgiving was 3.7 basis points, butThe 16 basis point abnormal move after the 2021 COVID-19 pandemic significantly pushed the average higher. ⑵ If the outliers in 2021 are excluded, the average volatility of this trading day in the past ten years has narrowed to only 2.4 basis points, showing that the post-holiday market usually exhibits low volatility. ⑶Historical statistics show that the probability of a slight upward trend in yields is high. In ten years, six trading days closed up and four trading days closed down. The probability of an increase is 60%. ⑷The average increase in yields on rising days is 4.4 basis points, which is significantly greater than the average 2.8 basis points decline on falling days, indicating that the upward trend is more powerful. ⑸ The performance of the German bond market during the same period was relatively balanced, with an average daily fluctuation of 4.2 basis points in downward yields and an average daily fluctuation of 4.0 basis points in upward trends, showing no obvious unilateral tendency.
⑴BrokerTec’s EU market and US market have resumed trading, but other markets under the CME Group are still at a standstill due to data center cooling issues. ⑵ This incident highlights the vulnerability of financial market infrastructure in the face of technical failures. The sudden interruption of key trading platforms will instantly freeze a large amount of liquidity. ⑶ Institutional investors need to re-evaluate their high dependence on a single data center, and decentralized system layout may become the focus of future risk management. ⑷The transaction resumption process itself may cause market fluctuations, and the concentrated liquidation or reconstruction of some positions will test the depth and resilience of the market. ⑸ In the next few days, we need to pay close attention to whether other markets can restart smoothly. Any delay may increase investor anxiety and amplify asset price fluctuations.
⑴ The Bank of India opened the bid on the 28th. The 2028 bond received bids of 277.05 billion rupees, only 89.92 billion were approved, and the winning rate was 32.5%. Two transactions were cut to 30.95%. ⑵ 2032 bonds are even more popular, with 311.72 billion funds grabbing 109.85 billion quotas, and 21 transactions receiving 86.48% of the partial allotment, showing that long-term demand is overwhelming. ⑶ There were 166 bids for 2055 bonds worth 152.54 billion, but the central bank only received 69.71 billion, with 92.23% of the three quotas. The ultra-long end is still enthusiastically sought after. ⑷ The most eye-catching 2054 sovereign green bond was besieged by 61 bids worth 114.05 billion rupees, and only one bid of 49.97 billion was won, with a quota as high as 99.94%, almost swallowed up in one go. ⑸ A total of more than 800 billion rupees have been grabbed for the 300 billion quota, with a subscription ratio of 2.7 times. The capital frenzy suggests that the market is betting that the top of interest rates has appeared. Follow-up attention will be paid to whether the central bank will take advantage of the trend to expand supply.
⑴ Although the US-Switzerland Framework Agreement on November 14 slashed tariffs on Swiss goods exported to the United States from 39% to 15%, in exchange for Swiss www.xmxmxm.cnpanies have pledged to invest US$200 billion in the United States by the end of 2028, but the US side has added "hard conditions" behind the negotiating table - US www.xmxmxm.cnmerce Secretary Lutnick proposed in September that US$10 billion must be used solely by Washington, but Switzerland rejected it on the spot. ⑵Swedish delegationGantner, a member and co-founder of private equity giant PartnersGroup, revealed that the United States used the "Japan-US model" as a template and asked Switzerland to provide discretionary funds. Swiss officials bluntly stated that they would "never accept it." After that, Lutnick put pressure again at the end of the negotiations and was ignored. ⑶Compared with the public text, the final statement only stated that Switzerland "promotes" investment in the United States, without any provision for capital control, highlighting that Lutnick's demands were www.xmxmxm.cnpletely excluded; neither U.S. Trade Representative Greer nor Treasury Secretary Bessant followed up on this request, indicating that the Trump administration's internal stance on investment dominance is inconsistent. ⑷If calculated based on the rejected plan, the US$10 billion only accounts for 5% of Switzerland's www.xmxmxm.cnmitted investment. However, the United States seeks direct allocation rights in order to inject blood into its own infrastructure and manufacturing projects. After Switzerland refused, the United States failed to replicate its negotiating leverage with Japan, highlighting that European allies are more wary of sovereign investment terms, and it may be difficult to follow the same script in subsequent tariff negotiations with the EU or other countries.
⑴ The Greek Bureau of Statistics announced on Friday that the producer price index in October was -1.4% year-on-year, marking the 12th consecutive month of negative value. Although the decline narrowed 0.3 percentage points from September, it was still lower than market expectations of -1.2%. ⑵ The energy sector led the decline, with prices -2.7% year-on-year, contributing about 0.8 percentage points to the overall PPI decline; it was also -0.3% month-on-month, offsetting a slight 0.1% increase in manufacturing semi-finished products. ⑶The rolling 12-month average PPI remains unchanged, showing that the price of the Greek industrial chain has not yet gotten rid of the zero growth track, and corporate profit recovery relies on cost www.xmxmxm.cnpression rather than demand expansion. ⑷The agency expects that if the average Brent price in November maintains the current range of US$63, the decline in Greek energy PPI may expand to -3%, and the overall PPI negative range for the whole year is almost a foregone conclusion, providing marginal reasons for the European Central Bank to continue to ease.
⑴ Institutional pricing shows that the probability of the Bank of England cutting the benchmark interest rate to 3.75% in December is as high as 98%, almost losing suspense. The market has sold the pound in advance. GBPUSD fell another 0.17% on Thursday, and the implied volatility rose to a two-week high. ⑵ The timing of the first drop in 2026 has become a new focus: the three rounds of meetings on February 5, March 19 and April 30 are regarded as "choose one out of three". The current betting probability of falling to 3.5% before March is 96%, with the deepest action in February, and the pricing probability of 54%. (3) The time difference hides arbitrage: If the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged on January 28, and the Bank of England cuts interest rates first in February, the interest rate gap between the United Kingdom and the United States will narrow by about 25 basis points. The model shows that the pound may depreciate by another 0.8%, and EURGBP is expected to test the 0.87 mark. ⑷ Key data nodes are hanging over the top: December inflation will be announced on January 21, and the market expects the CPI to fall back to 2.1%. If it unexpectedly falls below 2%, it will strengthen expectations for a second interest rate cut before March and cause the yield on short-term British government bonds to fall another 10 basis points.
⑴ Tokyo's core CPI jumped to 2.8% year-on-year on Friday, which is higher than the 2.7% upper limit of institutional surveys. It has exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for three consecutive months. The market has rapidly raised the probability of raising interest rates in December to 30% from 20% last week. ⑵ The Japanese yen closed at 156.37 against the US dollar on Friday, 1.5% higher than last week's low of 157.9, but still in the weakest zone since 1990. The intensity of verbal intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance rose to the highest level since July, and capital flows at the end of the month increased fluctuations by about 0.8%. ⑶ As for the Bank of England, the swap market is betting that the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points before February has risen to 70%. Because the British service industry inflation remained stubbornly at 5.2% in October, the market-priced peak interest rate may be revised upward to 5.75%, the highest in the G7. ⑷The U.S. dollar DXY fell 0.9% on a weekly basis, the largest weekly decline since July, and was almost flat during the month. Expectations of dual tightening in Britain and Japan caused U.S. dollar bulls to simultaneously reduce their positions, and fund www.xmxmxm.cn long positions fell to an eight-week low.
⑴ Moody's www.xmxmxm.cnmented on Friday that Britain's latest budget puts tax increases at the core and declares its will to reduce debt, which was a key weight in maintaining its Aa3 rating and "stable" outlook last week. ⑵ The agency also warned that in recent years, spending has repeatedly exceeded budgets, causing the deficit to rise. There are still high execution risks in the implementation of this fiscal consolidation. If spending is derailed again, the debt-to-GDP ratio may be difficult to fall from the current high of 101%. ⑶The budget plans to collect an additional 43 billion pounds in average annual taxes within five years. If fully realized, it can reduce the debt ratio by about 4 percentage points and reduce the refinancing demand of about 110 billion pounds on the supply side of British government bonds.
⑴The median consumer inflation expectation in the Eurozone in October 2025 rose slightly to 2.8%, www.xmxmxm.cnpared with 2.7% in September. ⑵ The three-year inflation expectation remains at 2.5%, and the five-year inflation expectation is stable at 2.2%. ⑶The uncertainty of inflation expectations in the next 12 months remains unchanged, and young respondents’ inflation perceptions and expectations continue to be lower than those of older groups. ⑷Consumer nominal income growth is expected to rise from 1.1% to 1.2%. ⑸Nominal expenditure growth is expected to remain stable at 3.5%. ⑹ Economic growth is expected to decrease by 1.1% in the next 12 months, www.xmxmxm.cnpared with the previous value of 1.2%. ⑺The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 10.7% to 11% in the next 12 months. ⑻Consumers expect house prices to rise 3.5% in the next 12 months, the same as in September.
⑴ Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in November 2025 remained at 6.3%, the same as the highest level since the end of 2020, highlighting the continued weakness in the labor market. ⑵ The Secretary of the Bureau of Labor pointed out that employment levels have stagnated and labor demand continues to be sluggish, reflecting the slow recovery after two years of economic contraction. ⑶ U.S. tariff measures further put pressure on exports and industrial sectors. ⑷The number of unemployed people increased slightly by 1,000 to 2.97 million, which was better than the expected increase of 5,000. ⑸The unadjusted number of unemployed personsIt dropped to 2.89 million for the third consecutive month, continuing to fall since August when it exceeded 3 million for the first time in ten years.
⑴ In early trading on London ICE on Friday, the February Brent oil contract reached a maximum of $63.10, up 23 cents on the day, and the weekly increase temporarily exceeded 1%. It is still difficult to change the monthly negative trend for four consecutive months, which is the longest decline since 2023. ⑵Russian-Ukrainian negotiations have repeatedly affected risk premiums: Putin said on Thursday that the US draft may become the basis for future agreements, but also hinted that fighting will continue if the talks collapse, and the geopolitical premium fluctuated by more than US$1 during the day. ⑶ A cooling failure in the CME data center caused the U.S. oil electronic trading to freeze at $59.08. The market lost its real-time price anchor. Some traders switched to the Brent spread model, which amplified ICE trading volume by about 10%. ⑷ Institutions unanimously expect that OPEC+ will maintain the existing quotas on Sunday and only activate the production capacity assessment mechanism of member states. If implemented as such, the surplus may reach 900,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, becoming the core focus of short sellers. ⑸ The bright spot on the demand side www.xmxmxm.cnes from cracking spreads: European refinery gross profits are still at a high level during the same period, supporting spot purchases. However, Rystad warned that once the glut is expected to solidify, refineries may be overhauled in advance, and the ceiling of $65 for Brent oil will be difficult to break.
⑴ European trade news revealed on Friday that the National Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) invited a tender to purchase 100,000 tons of long-grain white rice to be exported to Bangladesh. The lowest CIF offer was US$394.95/ton, setting a new lower price limit for the same variety in South Asia recently. ⑵ A total of 11 exporters bid, with the quotation range ranging from 397.25 to 424.80 US dollars, showing that Bangladesh has urgent demand and abundant regional supply. The price difference is nearly 30 US dollars, and the www.xmxmxm.cnpetition is fierce. ⑶The contract requires shipment within 45 days after winning the bid, and the quotation is valid for 21 working days. If the transaction is www.xmxmxm.cnpleted at the lowest price, the total cost will be approximately US$39.5 million, which is approximately 5% lower than the average purchase price of Bangladesh through Indian private www.xmxmxm.cnpanies, saving nearly US$2 million in foreign exchange for the fiscal year. ⑷ Bangladesh has launched five international tenders with lower prices in the past four weeks. The market expects supply from India and Myanmar to follow suit. The regional monthly import volume may exceed 300,000 tons, forming a ceiling effect on the FOB price of rice in Southeast Asia in the short term.
⑴The Swiss Agency for Economic Affairs announced on Friday that actual GDP shrank by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which was worse than the agency’s forecast of -0.4%, which was the worst performance since the lockdown in 2021. The readings were consistent regardless of whether the event effect was excluded. ⑵The year-on-year growth rate was only 0.5%, which was halved from the 1.3% in the second quarter (revised 0.1 percentage points higher), indicating that the high base and external demand are cooling simultaneously. ⑶ The main reason is the sharp decline in the added value of chemicals and pharmaceuticals. After the export bonus faded in the second quarter, the export value of this industry in the third quarter dropped by 6% month-on-month, directly cutting off about 0.3 percentage points of GDP. (4) Merchandise exports have declined by double digits for two consecutive quarters, while service exports have almost stagnated, failing to offset the industrial gap. ⑸The only oneThe highlight is private consumption. Housing, energy, catering and www.xmxmxm.cnmunications expenditures collectively pushed up domestic demand by 0.2 percentage points. Otherwise, the decline may expand to -0.7%, highlighting that the sudden drop in external demand is pushing Switzerland to the doorstep of a technical recession.
EUR/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1568, a decrease of 0.24%. Before the New York market opened, the price of (EURUSD) fell in the last intraday trading, and at the same time, the relative strength indicator showed a negative signal, reaching oversold levels, which is a bit exaggerated relative to the price trend, showing that the downward momentum may weaken quickly, and will rely on the EMA50 for support, while showing a slight bullish correction trend line support in the short term.
GBP/USD: As of 21:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3217, a decrease of 0.17%. Pre-market in New York, (GBPUSD) price has fluctuated around recent intraday levels in an attempt to gather bullish momentum for a recovery, with a bullish corrective trend taking over on a short-term basis and trading along a supportive secondary trendline in this trajectory. Additionally, a positive overlay signal is starting to appear on the relative strength indicator, indicating the formation of a positive divergence, indicating that the volatility movement is nearing its end.
Spot gold: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot gold has risen, now trading at 4169.80, an increase of 0.30%. Pre-market in New York, the (gold) price, after losing today's early gains, moved lower in the last intraday session to www.xmxmxm.cnplete its intraday move, with negative signals on the relative strength indicator, after reaching overbought levels, continuing to try to gain bullish momentum that could help it recover and rise again, with the continuation of the dynamic pressure represented by the exchange above the EMA50, reinforcing the stability and dominance of the short-term bullish trend.
Spot silver: As of 21:20 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 53.854, an increase of 0.93%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) price was trading choppy at its last intraday level to gain the bullish momentum needed to help it attack the key resistance at $54.35. Despite reaching overbought levels, the relative strength indicator is showing positive signs in the lead of the main short-term bullish trend, trading in line with the trend's supporting trend line.
Crude oil market: as of 21:2 Beijing time0. U.S. oil rose and is now at 58.980, an increase of 0.73%. Prices closed higher in the last intraday session in New York, breaking above the key resistance at $59.00, benefiting from positive support from trading above the EMA50, as well as from the slight bearish channel range that had limited previous trading in the short term. In addition, positive signals emerged on the relative strength indicator despite reaching overbought levels.
1. Westpac Bank released the latest economic forecast, predicting that Australia’s GDP in the third quarter will grow by 0.8% month-on-month, and the annualized growth rate will rise to 2.3%, slightly higher than the 2.0% forecast of the Reserve Bank of Australia. The bank pointed out that the most prominent highlight of economic performance this quarter will be the strong rebound in domestic demand, which is expected to surge by 1.5% month-on-month in the third quarter, marking the strongest quarterly growth since early 2012.
2. The report shows that the current Australian economic recovery is becoming increasingly broad-based, with multiple economic sectors working together to form support, rather than relying on independent growth in individual areas. Overall economic growth will moderate in the www.xmxmxm.cning quarters as the impact of unusually large capital expenditure projects, particularly aircraft purchases, fades. But even excluding these one-time factors, the underlying growth rate in the current quarter will still remain at a healthy level of 0.6%, showing the inherent resilience of the economy.
3. It is worth noting that productivity is expected to rebound significantly, with a full-year growth rate of 0.9%, which will push the nominal unit labor cost growth to slow to about 2.5% (on a six-month annualized basis). Analysts believe that this will be a positive signal for the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is weighing the outlook for inflation, providing more room for monetary policy adjustments.
Data from market research organization Omdia showed that due to rising prices, global DRAM sales increased by 30% in the third quarter, reaching US$40.3 billion. SK hynix’s market share was 34.1%. Although it dropped 5.3 percentage points from the second quarter, it still maintained its first position for three consecutive quarters. Samsung Electronics’ market share was 33.7%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter. Micron Technology ranked third, with a market share of 25.8%.
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