The Fed's dove voice is everywhere, and next week's torrent of data will add to the return of Wall Street giants. How long can gold and silver continue to party?

This week, affected by the US Thanksgiving holiday, market trading volume has been very low, which is a typical feature of Thanksgiving trading.

However, as the CME Group "unplugged the www.xmxmxm.cnwork cable" due to a data center failure on Friday, spot gold and silver fluctuated violently and continued to rise after futures prices resumed quotations. The price of gold rose by nearly US$150 this week, returning to above US$4,200; silver's rise was even more fierce, once reaching US$56, setting a new historical high.

In terms of data, the U.S. PPI and retail sales data in September performed poorly, and the weekly private sector employment data released by ADP was also quite weak.

There has been little change in the central bank's www.xmxmxm.cnmunication, but serious disagreements have emerged within the Bank of Japan, which has led to another sell-off of the yen, but the intensity has weakened. With Tokyo inflation data beating expectations, the Bank of Japan is under pressure to normalize policy, making a rate hike in December increasingly likely (currently expected to be around 56%).

But the market also received some better geopolitical news: the dawn of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is just around the corner, and negotiations are accelerating. U.S. envoy Witkov will travel to Moscow to discuss the revised peace plan. Zelensky is expected to hold discussions with the United States in the "near future" as negotiations on a new framework move forward.

As for next week, the Federal Reserve will enter the customary "silence period" before the December meeting, and many economic data will be released soon. In addition, as large traders return from vacation, the market may fluctuate violently next week.

Foreign exchange market:The U.S. dollar index fell continuously after fluctuating at high levels this week, affected by weaker-than-expected retail sales data and the market's strengthening of expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.Affected, it fell below the 100 mark during the week, showing an overall downward trend and once faced its worst weekly performance since July, closing at 99.47 on Friday. U.S. bond yields generally fell overall, with the 10-year yield once falling below 4%, indicating that demand for safe havens driven by the interest rate outlook continues to heat up. In terms of non-U.S. currencies, the euro, pound, yen, and Australian dollar all rose against the U.S. dollar due to the weakness of the U.S. dollar. Among them, the euro, pound, Australian dollar and US dollar all rose for five consecutive trading days.

Gold market:Spot gold rose overall. It rose sharply at the beginning of the week due to expectations of interest rate cuts. It once rose by nearly 100 US dollars during the session. Although there were subsequent fluctuations, the overall price remained near the high in the past two weeks. Silver's gains were stronger, rising sharply in the middle of the week. It rose for several days in a row on the back of improved risk appetite. A large amount of money flowed into silver ETFs, and supply continued to be tight, driving silver prices to rise sharply. In addition, CME suspended trading due to data center failure, exacerbating market volatility. Spot gold closed at $4,217.83 per ounce on Friday, achieving four consecutive positive monthly gains. Spot silver closed at 56.38, achieving seven consecutive monthly positives.

Crude oil market: International crude oil fluctuated upward. In the first half of the week, affected by positive signs in the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the market expected stable supply from Russia, oil prices were obviously under pressure, and WTI once hit a one-month low. Subsequently, oil prices rebounded from lows during the week amid increased uncertainty in negotiations and a wait-and-see mood before the OPEC+ meeting.

Weekly News Review

CME was down for 11 hours, affecting trillions of dollars in derivatives contracts

On Friday, the world's largest derivatives exchange, CME Group (CME), temporarily suspended futures and options trading due to a data center cooling system failure. The shutdown involves contracts such as U.S. crude oil, gasoline, palm oil, U.S. Treasury bonds and S&P 500 index futures, and even affects the foreign exchange trading platform EBS, with relevant contracts worth trillions of dollars.

The failure had a particularly severe impact on U.S. Treasury futures trading, with spot bond trading sparse and traders lacking effective hedging methods. Although traders were able to hedge through the swap market once London opened, the overall market was hit hard. www.xmxmxm.cnmodity traders are under intense pressure, especially dealing with delivery issues for benchmark U.S. gasoline and diesel futures expiring on the same day.

The Federal Reserve is full of doves, and December interest rate cut has become the focus

Recently, many Federal Reserve officials have publicly supported interest rate cuts, and market expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December have risen to about 87%. Weaker employment, declining consumer confidence and a lack of rebound in inflation are the main driving factors. At the same time, the market believes that if Hassett becomes chairman, the aggressive interest rate cuts expected by Trump will be implemented. Despite the growing dovish strength, there are still officials within the Fed concerned about inflationary risks.

Governor Waller advocated a rate cut in December, citing a weak labor market. He pointed out that non-agricultural non-agricultural data for October, November and November CPI data will be released after the December meeting, which may affect decision-making in January. He believes that tariffs have an impact on inflationLimited and one-time use.

"28 Articles" become "19 Articles", is the dawn of peace between Russia and Ukraine waiting to happen?

After closed-door talks in Geneva, the United States and Ukraine launched a new "19-point" peace plan to replace the previously controversial "28-point" plan. The future direction is highly dependent on three variables: whether key deals are reached directly at the leadership level, whether Russia accepts the terms, and whether Europe can be effectively included in the negotiation and guarantee mechanism.

Ukraine said that the talks were "constructive" and that the final agreement would be decided jointly by Zelensky and Trump. Ukraine's First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Kislitsa revealed that the new plan has canceled the upper limit of 600,000 Ukrainian troops, and at the same time modified the war crimes amnesty clause to respond to the "demands of war victims." In addition, restrictions on NATO troops stationed in Ukraine have also been adjusted.

The UK’s “disguised tax increase” of 26 billion pounds, the budget attracted attention

On Wednesday, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced the autumn budget in the House of www.xmxmxm.cnmons, focusing on increasing taxes to increase the fiscal surplus.

The budget is expected to bring about 26 billion pounds in additional tax revenue by the 2029/30 fiscal year. The main measures include extending the freezing period of personal income tax and national insurance tax thresholds, adjusting the tax-free savings account system, introducing a high-priced residential surtax, canceling the two-child welfare limit and imposing a driving tax on electric vehicles.

Trump launches the "Genesis Project" to integrate AI resources to accelerate scientific research

This week, Trump signed an executive order to officially launch a national artificial intelligence development project called the "Genesis Project". It aims to integrate the federal government, technology www.xmxmxm.cnpanies, universities, national laboratories and other forces to build a unified AI digital platform to centrally process massive data in science, engineering, energy, medical, national security and other fields to accelerate scientific research breakthroughs and www.xmxmxm.cnpress the scientific research cycle from years to days or even hours.

The project is regarded as "Manhattan Project 2.0", but key issues such as funding sources and intellectual property ownership have not yet been clarified, and it has been questioned that it may become a "disguised subsidy" for large technology www.xmxmxm.cnpanies. Michael Kratzios, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, called this the largest mobilization of federal scientific research resources since the Apollo program.

Nvidia is under attack from all sides: Big Short snipers, Meta switches to Google TPU

Nvidia’s dominance in the AI ​​field is being strongly impacted by Google. Google's Gemini3 model "caught up" with ChatGPT and won market praise, and its TPU chip also stole the limelight.

Recently, it was revealed that Meta plans to spend billions of dollars to purchase Google tensor processing units (TPUs), which has attracted market attention. As a dedicated chip, Google TPU is more efficient in certain AI tasks and is gradually attracting ultra-large-scale cloud service providers.

The United States expands anti-drug operations, and Trump said it would take land strikes against Venezuela

On Thursday local time, Trump said the United States would take action on land "soon" to stop theStop so-called drug trafficking from Venezuela. He emphasized that it is easier to intercept drug shipments in land-based operations, and said that relevant operations have entered the start-up stage. Previously, U.S. B-52H bombers carried out tactical attack exercises in the Caribbean, and aircraft carriers and bombers also approached the Venezuelan coast many times. Tensions between the United States and Venezuela continued to rise.

On the same day, Venezuelan President Maduro asked the military to maintain high vigilance and be ready to defend the country at any time during the www.xmxmxm.cnmemoration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Air Force. He criticized the United States for its repeated threats to undermine peace in Venezuela and the Caribbean and South America over the past 17 weeks, calling its arguments "false and ridiculous." Maduro said that the Venezuelan people will not be intimidated by any threats or aggression and are ready to defend their country and territory.

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